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    Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy #2

    kamen

    kamen

    Rare
    Rare LEVEL
    Sumali
    Apr 1, 2023
    Mga mensahe
    44
    G Coin
    1,060
    Diamond
    0
    G coin
    1,060
    2. The amount of bet

    I believe that the fixed bet per spin is the best way to test and analyze if your betting strategy and logic is robust enough. The double on loss, double on gain, fibonacci sequence and all other more complex progression styles of betting may be helpful sometimes in optimising the risk/return ratio of the strategy but they do not and should not make a real difference in the dynamics of the strategy's perfomance. The real difference is made by the prediction of the next spin itself. To rephrase, a strategy must first be robust and successful enough in the prediction side of things (red/black, odd/even, high/low, dozens, voisins/tiers/orphelins, straight numbers etc.) whereas the betting amount and any progression should be a risk management tool just to enhance the risk/return characteristics of the strategy - and not to turn a losing strategy into a winnig strategy. Thus, using a fixed bet on each spin, adds credibility and focuses on the event prediction side of things.

    3. The type of bet

    In general, roulette offers by default some "50-50" events (red/black, odd/even, high/low) and of same concept bets (sixes, dozens etc) as well as more sophisticated clustered neighborhood bets like voisins/tiers/orphelins; there are also straight number bets.

    Which type of bet a playes chooses has to do with the expected payout profile of the strategy, i.e. bet 6 chips on Tiers chips to get 18, bet 1 chip in Black to gain 2 etc. and the general risk profile of the player.

    Nevertheless, in any type of bet the strategy is based upon, there should be a simple general rule, just like in the financial markets trading strategies.

    Either

    Follow the Trend, i.e. if the previous spin is Black (Voisins) , then bet again on Black (Voisins)

    Or

    Follow the Mean Reversion, i.e. if the previous spin is Black (Voisins) , then bet on the Red (Tiers).

    For more sophisticated strategies, there could be an internal indicator that locally turns the strategy from Trend to Mean Reversion and vice versa.
     

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