One More Time

[kamen]

I asked this question on the wizard forum and got the gavel for it. So, I will ask again, on here. The ap-wiseguy and mathite all say ya can't win well and regular without the verify edge. They say that in the "long run" the house edge will mean certain doom for the "system" player. I've been winning well and regular at the baccarats for several year now, and in a year's worth of fulltime play I buck up against about 44 thousands real money decision. So, how many hand or shoe of the baccarats constitute the "long run" that will clip me and cause me to lose all of my thousands of unit of accumulated profit and my initial 100 units lifetime bankroll, hey hey?

 

[Triple B]

Mathematically speaking, you can't (or at least are not supposed to) win at Baccarat because it's a game of negative expected value - simply put, the odds are stacked against you. The 44 grand increase you've seen in your Bankroll is merely a product of variance that's thus far been in your favour.

You do ask a very interesting question. What constitutes the long run?
The answer depends on a number of factors, three of which being key:
1) The bet strategy you've employed
2) Your bankroll
3) Table limits

At times, you get the answer in 100 shoes. Sometimes it takes 100k shoes. For example, if you're betting with the relatively passive 1326 progression, you could go well over an entire lifetime's worth of baccarat play without bottoming out.